Papers listed by session

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A. Applied and computational mathematics

Stream leader: Barry Croke

A1. Computational statistics and data analysis
- Session Organiser: Georgy Sofronov Session description
- Multi-way correspondence analysis approach to examine Nobel Prize data from 1901 to 2018
  Alhuzali, T., Beh, E.J. and Stojanovski, E.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.alhuzali
- The use of exponential smoothing (ES), Holts and Winter (HW) and ARIMA models in electricity price analysis
  Alsaedi, Y. and Tularam, G.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.alsaedi
- Model-based clustering with mclust R package: Multivariate assessment of mathematics performance of students in Qatar
  Alzahrani, A., Beh, E. and Stojanovski, E.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.alzahrani
- Robust detection of statistically significant correlations in geophysical timeseries: A Monte Carlo method accounting for serial dependence and sampling uncertainty
  Armstrong, M.S., Kiem, A.S. and Kuczera, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.armstrong
- On optimal stopping problems with positive discounting rates and related Laplace transforms of first hitting times in models with geometric Brownian motions
  Gapeev, P.V.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.gapeev
- Invited Paper: Simulating population-size-dependent birth-and-death processes using CUDA and piecewise approximations
  Hautphenne, S. and Patch, B.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.hautphenne
- Prior versus data: A new Bayesian method for fishery stock assessment
  Lei, Y., Zhou, S. and Ye, N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.lei
- A change-point test for autoregressive processes using a harmonic mean P-value
  Ma, L. and Sofronov, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.ma
- Use of auxiliary information in estimation of the finite population mean: An exponential type of estimator
  Ullah, K., Hudson, I.L., Cheema, S.A., Khan, A., Rahman, A.R. and Hussian, Z.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.ullah
- Estimating tail probabilities of random sums of scale mixture of phase-type random variables
  Yao, H. and Taimre, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A1.yao

A2. Computational fluid dynamics and its applications in fluid-structure interactions
- Session Organisers: Methma Rajamuni, Fangbao Tian, John Young and Li Wang Session description
- CFD solver validations for simulating passively pitching tandem wings in hovering flight
  Huang, Q., Mazharmanesh, S., Tian, F.-B., Young, J., Lai, J.C.S. and Ravi, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A2.huang

A3. Mathematical tools for analysing model behaviour
- Session Organiser: Barry Croke Session description
- The Pade-Laplace formalism for carbon and climate responses
  Enting, I.G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A3.enting
- Invited Paper: Beyond validation: assessing the legitimacy of artificial neural network models
  Humphrey, G.B., Maier, H.R., Wu, W., Mount, N.J., Dandy, G.C. and Dawson, C.W.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A3.humphrey
- Simulation and data analytics for a Defence workforce transition
  Mortimer, K., Nguyen, V., Caelli, T. and Hill, B.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.A3.mortimer

B. Biological systems

Stream Leaders: Malcolm McPhee and Val Snow

B1. Pasture and native vegetation
- Session Organisers: Jo Owens, Neville Herrmann and Jinyan Yang Session description
- Preliminary results of parameterisation of DairyMod pasture model for tropical pasture; Brachiaria
  Jayasinghe, J.M.P., Donaghy, D.J., Pembleton, K.G., Barber, D.G. and Ramilan, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B1.jayasinghe
- Disentangling the effects of management and climate on perennial grass pastures and the degradation that follows multi-year droughts
  Owens, J., McKeon, G., O’Reagain, P., Carter, J., Fraser, G., Nelson, B. and Scanlan, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B1.owens

B3. Agricultural systems
- Session Organisers: Malcolm McPhee and Rogerio Cichota Session description
- Invited Paper: Random forest classification: A case study of dryland crop cover mapping in the Victorian Mallee using Sentinel-2A, Sentinel-3, and MODIS imagery
  Sabaghy, S., Sheffield, K.J. and Robson, S.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B3.sabaghy
- Considering unknown uncertainty in imperfect models: nitrogen mineralization as a case study
  Vilas, M.P., Bennett, F.R., Verburg, K. and Adams, M.P.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B3.vilas

B5. Sustainable and resilient agrifood value chains
- Session Organisers: Firouzeh Taghikhah, Val Snow and Bill Kaye-Blake Session description
- Trade strategies to mitigate the global impact of regional wheat production shocks
  Golding, P., Kapadia, S., Naylor, S., Schulz, J., Maier, H.R., Lall, U. and van der Velde, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B5.golding
- Economically optimum N fertiliser decisions for rice cultivation in Sri Lanka: Does soil type matter?
  Kanthilanka, H., Farquharson, R.J., Ramilan, T. and Weerahewa, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B5.kanthilanka
- Impacts of localizing food system on farmers’ livelihood resilience
  Loo, P.S., Önal, F., Bax, K., Smairy, M. and Surovets, V.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B5.loo
- Using milk tanker pickup and weather data to quantify the impacts of heat stress on milk production in Australia
  Meyer, R.S., Graham, A-M., Hepworth, G. and Eckard, R.J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B5.meyer

B6. The measurement and modelling of current and future soil carbon stocks
- Session Organisers: Bin Wang, De Li Liu, Cathy Waters and Susan Orgill Session description
- Invited Paper: A nationally scalable approach to simulating soil organic carbon in agricultural landscapes
  Coelli, K.M., Karunaratne, S.B., Baldock, J.A., Ugbaje, S., Buzacott, A.J.V., Filippi, P., Cattle, S. and Bishop, T.F.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B6.coelli

B7. Building spatially-explicit simulation models of biological systems: challenges and success stories when it comes to data integration
- Session Organisers: Hazel Parry, Alan Dorin and Jaye Newman Session description
- Does memory help optimise fruit fly foraging at the landscape level?
  Newman, J.D., Clarke, A.R., Silva, R. and Parry, H.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B7.newman

B8. Bioeconomic modelling of agricultural systems
- Session Organisers: Thiagarajah Ramilan and Frank Scrimgeour Session description
- Changing crop management improves farm level productivity and profitability for smallholder farmers in northern India
  Beletse, Y.G., Laing, A.M., Prestwidge, D.B., Gathala, M.K., Subash, N. and Liedloff, A.C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B8.beletse
- Building responsive bio-economic models to replicate complex farm management decisions for mixed irrigation farming systems in southern NSW
  Broadfoot, K., Cashen, M., Behrendt, K., Clark, A.J. and Graham, P.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.B8.broadfoot

C. Computer science and engineering

Stream Leaders: Min Chen and Dan Ames

C1. Digital twins and mixed reality: Case studies and applications
- Session Organisers: Lachlan Hetherton and Bronwyn Fox Session description
- Mechanical digital twinning of the human body in the workplace for reduced injury risk and improved health
  Harrison, S.M. and Cohen, R.C.Z.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C1.harrison
- Using Workspace to implement Digital Twins in the Mixed Reality Lab
  Watkins, D., Bolger, M., Hetherton, L., Zhang, Z., Xie, P., Harrison, S.M. and Cohen, R.C.Z.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C1.watkins

C2. Workflows for productivity and commercialisation of modelling and simulation
- Session Organiser: Paul Cleary Session description
- Ergomechanic: A markerless motion capture and ergonomic assessment tool developed using the Workspace workflow engine
  Cohen, R.C.Z. and Harrison, S.M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C2.cohen
- Implementing a fully homomorphic encrypted circuit in Workspace
  Nguyen, D. and Watkins, D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C2.nguyen
- Workspace Workflow Comparison
  Oakes, N. and Thomas, D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C2.oakes
- AeroDAQ: A Workspace based application
  Sankaranarayanan, N. and Humphries, R.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C2.sankaranarayanan
- Extending the capabilities of applications built using the Workspace architecture
  Subramanian, R., Thomas, D.G. and Cummins, S.J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C2.subramanian

C3. Open distributed modelling
- Session Organiser: Songshan Yue Session description
- Algorithms for diffusion and convection models implemented using open source libraries
  Mas-Hernandez, E., Mancilla-Barría, E.A., de la Torre-Sanzana, M. and Berres, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C3.mas-hernandez

C4. Advanced modelling and simulation technologies
- Session Organisers: Tomasz Bednarz, Haifeng Shen and Dan Ames Session description
- Towards a provenance-enabled, reproducible, and extensible machine learning platform by integrating databases, web services, containers, and code repositories in a loosely coupled manner
  Singh, R.M., Wilson, P., Gregory, L., Seaton, S. and Malone, B.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.C4.singh

E. Energy, integrated infrastructure and urban planning

Stream Leaders: John Boland and Pascal Perez

E3. Sustainable systems design
- Session Organiser: John Boland Session description
- Discrete event modeling and simulation of smart parking conflict management
  Dominici, A., Capocchi, L., De Gentili, E. and Santucci, J-F.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.E3.dominici

F. Environment and ecology

Stream Leaders: Stefan Reis and Shawn Laffan

F3. Transitions, participatory optimisation and data science for the environment
- Session Organisers: Firouzeh Taghikhah and Martin Volk Session description
- Enabling integrated modelling systems for environmental prediction at national scale
  Specht, A., Guru, S.M. and Morris, B.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F3.specht
- Application of a delayed logistic equation to a reindeer population in a closed environment
  Watt, S., Jovanoski, Z., Towers, I., Saifuddin, R. and Sidhu, H.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F3.watt
- The population dynamics of ecosystem engineers and habitat modification
  Watt, S., Jovanoski, Z., Towers, I., Saifuddin, R. and Sidhu, H.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F3.watt2
- A framework for engaging stakeholders in solving real-world water resources management problems
  Wu, W., Maier, H.R., Dandy, G.C., Leonard, R., Bellette, K., Cuddy, S.M. and Maheepala, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F3.wu

F5. Hybrid approaches to data-driven analysis towards explainable modelling and comprehensive systems in support of environmental sustainability
- Session Organisers: Marina Erechtchoukova and Peter Khaiter Session description
- Application of topic modelling to Integrated Water Resource Assessment domain
  Erechtchoukova, M.G. and Kohli, A.K.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F5.erechtchoukova
- An ML-based study of extreme weather events incorporating seasonality factor
  Khaiter, P. and Suleman, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F5.khaiter
- Data-driven approaches to rainfall nowcasting for application in hydrological modelling
  Mhedhbi, R. and Erechtchoukova, M.G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F5.mhedhbi

F7. GIS and environmental modelling
- Session Organiser: Shawn Laffan Session description
- Lessons learned using dSedNet plug-in within a water supply catchment for Greater Sydney
  Amini, S., Pont, J., van der Sterren, M. and Freebairn, A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.F7.amini

G. Global change and natural hazards

Stream Leaders: Jason Evans and Christoph Rudiger

G1. Modelling for action: Advancing climate resilience and adaptation
- Session Organisers: Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl and Zaved Khan Session description
- Modelling future changes in social vulnerability and bushfire risk
  Moore, E., Zhar, Y., Radford, P., O'Callaghan, M., Maier, H.R., Riddell, G., van Delden, H. and Wouters, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G1.moore
- Developing an Adaptive Evacuation Simulation Framework based on Agent Performance Dynamics
  Rollan, T.A., Marquez, L. and Chua, C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G1.rollan
- INDRA – Climate Resilience Platform for the City of Makassar
  Weeraratne, V.C.N., Prakash, M., Cohen, R.C.Z. and Garg, N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G1.weeraratne
- Coastal inundation modelling and adaptation assessment for the Bellarine Peninsula
  Weeraratne, V.C.N., Cohen, R.C.Z., Roob, R. and Prakash, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G1.weeraratne2

G3. Modelling of bushfire dynamics, fire weather, impact and risk
- Session Organisers: Jason Sharples and Khalid Moinuddin Session description
- Spotfire Utilisation Project: Development of a mapping tool for regions prone to vorticity-driven lateral spread
  Badlan, R.L. and Sharples, J.J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.badlan
- Bushfire propagation speed: Combining the effects of wind and slope
  Berres, S. and Cárcamo, N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.berres
- Extreme bushfire projections using a standardised method
  Dowdy, A.J., Thatcher, M., Rafter, T., Evans, J., Ye, H., Su, C.-H., Stassen, C., Pepler, A., Bell, S. and Steinle, P.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.dowdy
- A water suppression model for wildfires
  Hilton, J.E., Sullivan, A., Plucinski, M. and Swedosh, W.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.hilton
- Stochastic modelling of wind and its implication for wildfire spread predictions
  Masoudian, S., Sharples, J.J., Jovanoski, Z., Towers, I. and Watt, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.masoudian
- Underpinning a new approach to predicting blow-up fire events
  McRae, R.H.D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.mcrae
- Modelling terrain for wildfire purposes
  McRae, R.H.D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.mcrae2
- Assessing the potential for pyrocumulonimbus occurrence using simple fire weather indices
  Sharples, J.J. and McRae, R.H.D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.sharples
- Incorporating directionality in the modelling of firebreaks using a two-dimensional dynamic fire spread simulator
  Swedosh, W. and Hilton, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.swedosh
- Improvement of drag model for non-burning firebrand transport in Fire Dynamics Simulator
  Wadhwani, R., Sutherland, D., Thorpe, G. and Moinuddin, K.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.wadhwani
- Invited Paper: Application of neural networks to rate of spread estimation in shrublands
  Wadhwani, R., Sutherland, D., Moinuddin, K.A. and Sharples, J.J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G3.wadhwani2

G4. Risk of natural hazard in a changing climate: modelling, prediction and projection
- Session Organisers: Anthony Clark and Esther Qinggaozi Zhu Session description
- Tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in climate datasets: East coast of Australia
  Bell, S.S., Chand, S.S., Dowdy, A.J., Ramsay, H.A., Deo, A., Su, C.-H., Brown, A. and Ye, H.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G4.bell

G5. Flood and tsunami modelling: Techniques and applications
- Session Organisers: Jin Teng, Fazlul Karim, Stephen Roberts and Catherine Ticehurst Session description
- KEYNOTE: Generating two-monthly surface water images for the Murray-Darling Basin
  Ticehurst, C.J., Teng, J. and Sengupta, A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.G5.ticehurst

H. Health and biosecurity

Stream Leaders: Louise Freebairn and Irene Hudson

H1. COVID-19 simulation modelling – responding to a global crisis
- Session Organisers: Cindy Peng, Danielle Currie, Sheryl Chang, Mark Mackay and Irene Hudson Session description
- Model-based machine learning to explore the nexus between COVID-19 and environmental factors in the United States
  Munir, T., Hudson, I.L., Cheema, S.A., Muhammad, R., Shafqat, M. and Kifayat, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.H1.munir

H2. Data science and simulation modelling methods for health and mental health applications
- Session Organisers: Louise Freebairn, Jo-An Occhipinti , Ante Prodan , Jong Bae Baek, Sejong Bae and Karan P Singh Session description
- The role of embodied cognition in linguistic mental health analysis
  Kernot, D., Van Hooff, M., Lawrence-Wood, E., Glenny, L., Snowden, C., Green, K. and Son, C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.H2.kernot
- Prototyping, developing, and iterating a gamified survey to evaluate participatory systems modelling for youth mental health: Quality assurance pilot
  Lee, G.Y., Hickie, I.B., Occhipinti, J., Song, Y.J.C., Huntley, S., Skinner, A., Lawson, K., Hockey, S.J. and Freebairn, L.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.H2.lee

I. Participatory decision making and modelling social systems

Stream Leaders: Oz Sahin and Kate O'Brien

I2. Practices, tools and methods to support model-based decision-making processes with stakeholders
- Session Organisers: Fateme Zare, Sondoss Elsawah, Raimo P. Hämäläinen, Nagesh Kolagani and Alexey Voinov Session description
- Solving constrained K-Markov decision processes
  Ferrer-Mestres, J. and Chades, I.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.I2.ferrermestres
- How thunderstorms appear in weather forecasts
  Price, B. and Foley, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.I2.price

I8. Social and organisational modelling
- Session Organiser: Antony Dekker Session description
- ‘Him makeum walk straight’: using simulation to explore Australian Aboriginal skin groups
  Dekker, A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.I8.dekker
- Understanding Eurovision tele-voting through modelling
  Dekker, A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.I8.dekker2
- A discrete event simulation for modelling Aljamarat Bridge rituals and evacuation scenarios
  Owaidah, A.A., Olaru, D., Bennamoun, M., Sohel, F. and Khan, R.N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.I8.owaidah
- The Lobster Game: Experiential learning of system dynamics through serious gaming
  Richards, R.G. and Jagdish, N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.I8.richards

J. Water resources

Stream Leaders: Jai Vaze and Tim Peterson

J1. Ecohydrological modelling
- Session Organisers: Edoardo Daly, Patricia Saco and Sally Thomson Session description
- Assessing waterbird breeding conditions using an emulator of wetland inundation regime
  Quijano, J., Rodriguez, J., Kuczera, G., Saco, P.M., Sandi, S.G., Carlier, R., Wen, L. and McDonough, K.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J1.quijano

J3. From whole of catchment to suburban lots – using eWater tools to inform water management decisions across all scales
- Session Organiser: Trudy Green Session description
- An assessment framework for classifying determinants of household water consumption and their priorities for research and practice
  Cominola, A., Preiss, L., Thyer, M., Maier, H.R., Stewart, R. and Castelletti, A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J3.cominola
- Source: a water resource modelling system for supply augmentation planning
  Raut, A.K., Neupane, R., Kibria, G. and Maheswaran, M.S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J3.raut

J4. Hydrological/Water balance modelling for water services: impact and value
- Session Organisers: Ashkan Shokri, Andrew Frost and Jai Vaze Session description
- Invited Paper: Recent learnings towards achieving high quality probabilistic predictions in practical applications of hydrological models
  Kavetski, D., McInerney, D., Hunter, J. and Thyer, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J4.kavetski
- A method to calibrate daily rainfall-runoff models to monthly streamflow data
  Lerat, J., Kavetski, D., McInerney, D. and Thyer, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J4.lerat
- The local influence of residential infill on the urban water flows: a multi-city analysis
  Moravej, M., Kenway, S., Renouf, M., Urich, C., Sainsbury, O., Bertram, N. and London, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J4.moravej

J5. Advances and applications in decision making in the face of multiple plausible futures
- Session Organisers: Joseph Guillaume, Avril Horne and Holger Maier Session description
- Water security analysis of the Middle River supply system: a foreSIGHT application
  Culley, S., Westra, S., Bennett, B., Maier, H.R., Newman, J., Van Der Linden, L. and Irvine, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J5.culley
- Uncertainty, sensitivity and scenario analysis: how do they fit together?
  Maier, H.R., Guillaume, J.H.A., McPhail, C., Westra, S., Kwakkel, J.H., Razavi, S., van Delden, H., Thyer, M.A., Culley, S.A. and Jakeman, A.J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J5.maier

J7. Challenges, new concepts and new methods for water resources management
- Session Organisers: Jing Yang and Channa Rajanayaka Session description
- An assessment of economic and environmental benefits of desilting village tanks in Sri Lanka: An application of linear programming
  Dayananda, M.D.T., Dilhari, W.A.D.S. and Weerahewa, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J7.dayananda
- An inclusive city water account by integrating multiple data sources for South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia
  Islam, K.M.N., Kenway, S.J., Renouf, M.A. and Wiedmann, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J7.islam
- Evaluation of the time of concentration estimation methods for small rural watersheds
  Rezende, B.N., Boulomytis, V.T.G., Duarte, S.N., Jacomazzi, M.A. and Zuffo, A.C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J7.rezende

J8. Modelling hydrological variability and change across spatio-temporal scales
- Session Organisers: Sina Khatami , Kiernan Fowler, Margarita Saft and Murray Peel Session description
- Invited Paper: Modelling hydrological change due to wildfires
  Partington, D., Thyer, M., Shanafield, M., McInerney, D., Westra, S., Maier, H.R., Simmons, C.T., Croke, B.F.W., Jakeman, A.J., Gupta, H.V. and Kavetski, D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J8.partington
- “Naïve” inclusion of diverse climates in calibration is not sufficient to improve model reliability under future climate uncertainty
  Trotter, L., Saft, M., Peel, M.C. and Fowler, K.J.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J8.trotter

J10. High-resolution Earth observations in land surface modelling
- Session Organisers: Siyuan Tian, Luigi Renzullo and Jeffrey Walker Session description
- Continental scale downscaling of AWRA-L analysed soil moisture using random forest regression
  Yu, Y., Renzullo, L.J. and Tian, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J10.yu

J13. River system modelling for water resources management: Advances and challenges
- Session Organisers: Dushmanta Dutta, Richard Beecham, Andrew Brown, Rachel Blakers and Danielle Baker Session description
- Temporal convolutional network algorithm for streamflow predictions in a subtropical river
  Liu, Y.L., Deng, C. and Zhang, H.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J13.liu
- Improving catchment runoff estimates by ameliorating the impacts of SILO pluviometer data discontinuities through expanding the SILO reference database
  Stewart, L.K. and Jeffrey, S.J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.J13.stewart

K. Hydroclimate

Stream Leaders: Yongqiang Zhang and Conrad Wasko

K5. The future of hydrometeorological forecasting: uncertainty, advances and applications
- Session Organisers: James Bennett, Céline Cattoën-Gilbert , Julien Lerat, Tse Ling (Seline) Ng and Andrew Schepen Session description
- A comparative study on 10 and 30-year simulation of CMIP5 decadal hindcast precipitation at catchment level
  Hossain, M.M., Garg, N., Anwar, A.H.M.F., Prakash, M. and Bari, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K5.hossain
- Invited Paper: Improving sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts across flow regimes
  McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N. and Kuczera, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K5.mcinerney
- Advances in subseasonal streamflow forecasting: An overview
  Thyer, M., McInerney, D., Kavetski, D., Laugesen, R., Woldemeskel, F., Tuteja, N. and Kuczera, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K5.thyer
- Estimation of road closure risks along the Bruce highway using the AWRA-L water balance model
  Vogel, E., Lerat, J., Gericke, L.A., Russell, C.A., Preece, A., Stuart, G., Pipunic, R., Khan, Z. and Donnelly, C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K5.vogel

K6. Remote sensing for hydroclimate applications
- Session Organisers: Dongryeol Ryu , Fuqin Li, Yi Liu and Seokhyeon Kim Session description
- An automatic system to estimate crop phenological dates with remote sensing: A case study in the southeast Australia
  Gao, Z., Guo, D., Ryu, D. and Western, A.W.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K6.gao
- Geostatistical merging of weather radar data with a sparse rain gauge network in Queensland
  Sharp, C., Schepen, A., Das, S. and Everingham, Y.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K6.sharp

K7. Challenges and advances in continental-scale hydrological forecasting systems
- Session Organisers: Julien Lerat, Elisabeth Vogel, Qichun Yang, Katayoon Bahramian , David Robertson and Siyuan Tian Session description
- Enhancement of lightning strike forecasts using a machine learning approach
  Gow, D., Lerat, J., Warren, R. and Blockley, I.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K7.gow

K11. Long term changes in the hydrological cycle under a variable and changing climate
- Session Organisers: Margarita Saft, Edoardo Daly, Clare Stephens and Keirnan Fowler Session description
- Mapping additional streamflow decline due to shifts in catchment response during the Millennium Drought
  Saft, M., Peel, M., Jordan, P., Shepherd, D., Steendam, G., Lett, R. and Peterson, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K11.saft
- Observation based gridded annual runoff estimates over Victoria, Australia
  Weligamage, H.A.C.G., Fowler, K.J.A., Peterson, T.J., Saft, M. and Peel, M.C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.K11.weligamage

L. Water quality

Stream Leaders: Andrew Western, Danlu Guo and Anna Lintern

L1. Catchment water quality modelling
- Session Organisers: Sandy Elliott, Danlu Guo and Mark Silburn Session description
- Estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters using the iterative ensemble smoother
  Bennett, F.R. and Doherty, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L1.bennett
- Modelling to determine key drivers of water quality off sugarcane paddocks in the Great Barrier Reef catchment
  Power, B., Shaw, M., Vilas, M.P., Farr, M. and Thompson, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L1.power
- Opportunistic emulation of computationally expensive simulations via Deep Learning
  Sanderson, C., Pagendam, D., Power, B., Bennett, F. and Darnell, R.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L1.sanderson
- Revised models for the proportion of suspended sediments in hillslope soil loss – an empirical understanding
  Silburn, D.M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L1.silburn

L2. Modelling water treatment and water quality management systems
- Session Organisers: Kefeng Zhang and Anna Lintern Session description
- The use of modelling in design of wastewater subsurface drip irrigation
  Cook, F.J., Gearing, P., Bennett, S. and Oakley, R.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L2.cook
- A model based on DOC data for determination of alum dosing for drinking water treatment
  Daraei, H., Awad, J., Bertone, E., Stewart, R.A., Chow, C.W.K., Duan, J. and van Leeuwen, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L2.daraei
- A sensitivity analysis of a water quality model for a constructed wetland
  Roberts, M.E., Lu, J., Kavehei, E. and Adame, M.F.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L2.roberts
- Modelling of a five reactor Activated Sludge cascade process using ASM #1
  Watt, S., Nelson, M., Hai, F. and Sidhu, H.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L2.watt

L3. Water quality and ecological interactions in lakes, estuaries and coastal seas
- Session Organisers: Andrew Western and Songyan (Sunny) Yu Session description
- Modelling methane emissions from lakes and reservoirs: case study of Lake Kinneret
  Kurucz, K., Hipsey, M.R. and Huang, P.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L3.kurucz

L4. Modelling of erosion and sediment transport in catchments
- Session Organisers: Susan Cuddy, Lydia Cetin and Tony Weber Session description
- Use of high-resolution DEM for improving stream slope estimates and its effect on modelled fine sediment loads
  Pollett, A. and Fentie, B.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L4.pollett
- Invited Paper: Assessing performance of the MERGE model for simulating gully interventions
  Prentice, M.J., Waud, M.W., Hamilton, D.P. and Roberts, M.E.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.L4.prentice

M. ASOR – DORS

Stream Leaders: David Marlow and Hasan Turan

M1. Supply chain management and logistics
- Session Organisers: Zühal Kartal , Mohan Krishnamoorthy and Andreas Ernst Session description
- The dial-a-ride problem in the case of a patient transportation system in Brazil
  Bernardo, M., Souza, A.L., Amirghasemi, M., Barthelemy, J. and Perez, P.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M1.bernardo
- Freight train scheduling via decentralised multi-agent deep reinforcement learning
  Bretas, A.M.C., Mendes, A., Chalup, S., Jackson, M., Clement, R. and Sanhueza, C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M1.bretas
- The Standard Refuelling Facility Expansion Problem: A case study in Australia
  Calle, J., Perez-Franco, R., Mak-Hau, V., Abril, D. and Rojas, D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M1.calle
- Hydrogen bus route planning in regional Victoria
  Esmaeilbeigi, R., Mak-Hau, V., Pineda-Villavicencio, G. and Ugon, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M1.esmaeilbeigi
- Assessing last mile delivery strategies – A hybrid solution approach
  Muriel, J.E., Zhang, L., Fransoo, J.C. and Perez-Franco, R.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M1.muriel

M2. Simulation-based analysis in decision-making context
- Session Organisers: Fatemeh Jalalvand, Sanath Kahagalage, Hasan Hüseyin Turan and Sondoss Elsawah Session description
- MOOR: Model-based Offline Reinforcement learning for sustainable fishery management
  Ju, J., Kurniawati, H., Kroese, D. and Ye, N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M2.ju
- Evaluating instruction quality across narrative modality using measures of real-time cognitive load
  Smith, S.P., Blackmore, K., Wark, S. and Nowina-Krowicki, M.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M2.smith
- The closed loop military maintenance workforce: A simulation-based optimisation approach
  Withers, K.R., Turan, H.H., Kahagalage, S. and Elsawah, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M2.withers

M3. Intersection of machine learning and optimisation algorithms
- Session Organisers: Babak Abbasi, Jing Fu and Zahra Hosseinifard Session description
- A large-scale multi-rider matching problem with reneging passengers: single source case
  Fu, J., Zhang, L., Huang, K. and Liu, Z.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M3.fu
- Data preprocessing for non-image data: using convolution neural networks for network intrusion detection systems
  Glukhov, G. and Lynar, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M3.glukhov

M4. System dynamics applications in OR to support decision making under uncertainty
- Session Organisers: Shayne Gary, Sondoss Elsawah and Matthew Richmond Session description
- System dynamics applications for defence combat modelling: preliminary insights from a literature exploration
  Cunico, G., Elsawah, S., Gary, M.S., Cao, T., Kosowski, L. and Richmond, M.K.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M4.cunico
- Operational effectiveness of future land combat teams: model conceptualisation
  Richmond, M.K., Gary, M.S., Cao, T., Blumson, D., Kosowski, L., Hock, K., Elsawah, S. and Kempt, N.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M4.richmond

M5. Design and analysis of simulation experiments
- Session Organisers: Andrew Gill and Jessica Penfold Session description
- Factor screening for binary responses from combat simulations
  Demirhan, H., Georgiou, S., Gill, A. and Stylianou, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M5.demirhan
- Regression-based approaches for simulation meta-modelling in the presence of heterogeneity and correlation
  Garces, L.P.D.M., Bogomolov, T. and Chiera, B.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M5.garces
- Heteroscedasticity and correlation in linear regression
  Gill, A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M5.gill

M7. Modelling and simulation-based combat analysis
- Session Organisers: Wayne Power, Tristan Goss, Denis Shine, Thomas Jacquier and Andreanna Humphrey Session description
- OneWorld: Evolving an architecture for complex system representation in engagement simulation
  Armstrong, R.D., Christie, M.J. and Mellen, P.R.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.armstrong
- Optimal location of launchers in a missile defence system
  Azzollini, N., Babu, B., Reade, A. and Rodda, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.azzollini
- Comet: A naval Combat Management System model for combat analysis
  Blaess, S.G., Christie, M.J. and Mitchell, J.L.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.blaess
- Reconstructing Lanchester Warfare Models through a Lagrangian Mechanics Lens
  Gill, J., Gill, A. and Penfold, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.gill
- Command Professional Edition: Initial insights of a commercial military operational modelling and simulation tool
  Hagley, S., Lo, E.H.S., Hoek, P.J., Donohoo, A. and Peacock, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.hagley
- A strategy for using cooperating missiles for missile defence
  Kapsis, M., Pudney, P., Aarao, J., Miller, W. and Freebairn, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.kapsis
- Integrating and automating a closed loop simulation capability to enable easier exploration of the parameter space
  Kiparoglou, S. and Coppola, D.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.kiparoglou
- An instance space analysis of combat simulations to understand the impact of force and information advantage on survival ratios
  Smith-Miles, K., Bista, S. and Jiang, L.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.smith-miles
- Invited Paper: Causality modelling of simulated temporally indexed events to construct a combat narrative
  Tiong, J.K.R. and Chiera, B.A.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.tiong
- A queueing theoretic approach for performance prediction of collaborative active protection systems
  Weinberg, G.V.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.weinberg
- Determining performance limits for directed energy weapons in collaborative active protections systems
  Weinberg, G.V.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M7.weinberg2

M8. Defence force design and wargaming
- Session Organisers: Cayt Rowe and Niem Tri Session description
- Consideration of enabling and enterprise functions within Defence force design
  Boyce, J., Tay, N. and Rowe, C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.boyce
- Portfolio optimisation and scheduling using temporal tolerances
  Calbert, G.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.calbert
- A layered meta-data approach to the design of joint experimentation data warehouse
  Jiang, L., Boyle, M., Johns, K., Muniyappagounder Subramanian, C. and Bista, S.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.jiang
- KEYNOTE: A regret-based incremental elicitation for multi-criteria force design
  Mak-Hau, V., Cao, T. and Yearwood, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.mak-hau
- An evaluation model and tool for Defence capability options
  Nguyen, M.-T., Coutts, A., Knoll, J., Zuparic, M., Peacock, J., Bilusich, D., Galister, M. and Johns, K.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.nguyen
- Analytic approaches to understanding future Defence workforce needs
  Rowe, C., Crockett, A., Rohan-Jones, S., Aljoorfri, S., Tay, N., Coutts, A., Bishop, C., Pay, A., Sim, W., Date, V. and Boyce, J.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.rowe
- Using causal models to evaluate Force Generation options
  Shine, D.R., Knoll, J. and Cao, T.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.shine
- An evolutionary approach to balancing and disrupting real-time strategy games
  Snell, J., Masek, M. and Lam, C.P.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M8.snell

M9. General OR techniques and applications
- Session Organisers: David Marlow and Hasan Turan Session description
- Forecasting sales with Bayesian networks: a case study of a supermarket product in the presence of promotions
  Hamza, M., Abolghasemi, M. and Alvandi, A.O.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M9.hamza
- The Open Maritime Traffic Analysis Dataset
  Masek, M., Lam, C.P., Rybicki, T., Snell, J., Wheat, D., Kelly, L., Glassborow, D. and Smith-Gander, C.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M9.masek
- Measures to analyse sustainability in military workforce structures
  Pike, C. and Moran, B.
  https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.M9.pike

Modelling for action with a flood of data and a cloud of uncertainty