×M7. Modelling and simulation-based combat analysis

Understanding and predicting the outcomes of modern military engagement scenarios is becoming increasingly complex, with a high degree of integration and interdependence between systems as well as a large degree of uncertainty. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) based OR forms a critical component of many evidence-based decision making processes within Defence, allowing decision makers the opportunity to explore scenarios that are too complex or too costly to test, and on problems where real-word validation and feedback on the results is unlikely outside of wartime, but could have major consequences if wrong. As the decision being made based upon the models need to be “contestable”, so do the models and simulation tools need to be contestable, as well.

The M&S-based Combat Analysis session will explore papers discussing best practice methods and applications, issues, and challenges associated with the use of M&S to understand and predict the outcome of future complex military engagements. This topic will synergise with existing DORS sessions, providing an M&S pair to the Force Design and Wargaming session, while being more focused on a specific application than the general Simulation Based Analysis session.

All relevant topics and authors are welcome, but papers are particularly sought from Defence Industry, the public service, and academia in areas such as the following (as applied to combat analysis):

• System of System uncertainty quantification
• Validation and Verification of Combat Analysis models
• Novel Defence applications of physics and stochastic modelling
• Case studies of Combat Analysis
• The use of M&S to assess future Defence concepts
• The synergy between “softer” OA approaches and “harder” physics based M&S/OA approaches
• Development of model representations for use in Combat Analysis • Combat vehicle “trafficability”
• High performance computing applications

Key topics: Modelling, Simulation, Analysis, Defence