This session considers the use of stochastic models to represent and simulate random variability within the hydro-climatic system, and in so doing, guide probabilistic assessments of system outcomes. The system of interest typically extends from the influence of climate and weather variables on the catchment streamflow, to dependent catchment features, such as the option to upgrade a dam or the option to provide environmental flows. Topics of interest may include the relationships between weather variables under historical and future projected climate simulations, the role and modelling of significant features within the climate system (e.g. inter-annual variability, flood events, droughts, etc), the representation and evaluation of the weather model or the system model, or methods of interpretation of probabilistic outcomes such as risk-based assessments. A wide variety of case studies, catchments and models are welcomed.
Key topics: Stochastic modelling, Probabilistic assessment, Floods/droughts, Risk evaluation