×K14. Understanding and quantifying uncertainties in hydrologic and environmental models

The foremost challenge in natural resource management today is to make predictions in a changing environment for applications such as ecosystem management, flood warning, and water allocation. The difficulty of this task is amplified when considering the uncertainty associated with observations, models, and the future climate. To this end, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods are routinely deployed in environmental modelling applications. However, rapidly changing observational technologies, computational power, modelling platforms, and our scientific understanding of earth systems complicate the ongoing use of traditional approaches.

This session welcomes contributions aimed at identifying the sources, challenges, approaches and novel solutions related to uncertainty of hydrologic and environmental models. Abstracts and papers on the following topics are particularly welcome:

Key topics: Uncertainty analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Observation error, Model error