×H1. Global change population and economic risk assessments and risk-informed decision-making: modelling and simulation

Global climate change associated with anthropogenic warming has created serious challenges to sustainable development. It is vitally important to understand the mechanism of global change induced risk and conduct quantitative assessment it for risk-informed adaptation and decision-making. Scenario-based risk assessment models with the help of climate and socioeconomic systems dynamics simulation are critical tools to do so. In this session, we will not only introduce the efforts of an ongoing national key research and development program project of China, Global change risk of population and economic systems: Mechanisms and assessments, but also provide a great opportunity for international peers to discuss how to use climate and socioeconomic systems simulation to

  1. understand and project the future evolution of climate hazards in association with the changes in climate mean, variation, and extremes, given different representative concentration paths (RCPs)
  2. understand and project future population and socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards, under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
  3. develop scenario-based risk assessment models to present their interactions so as to quantify the risk, the probability of consequences in the short-to-medium future.

It is a great honour for us to chair this session, and your contributions will make this session excellent. We will look forward to hearing your insights and experience in the fields of climate and socioeconomic systems simulation.

Key topics: Global change risk, Population and economic systems, Mechanism, Risk assessment